01 March, 2005

And Now a Word from Osama

The Department of Homeland Security is sending bulletins to remind people that Al Qaeda would love to strike the American soil. The interecepted message from Bin Laden to al-Zarqawi dosn't actually mention the U.S. but analysts are drawing the inference. Should we be especially cautious?

No more than usual. The fact that the communication was intercepted is a good sign that the connections between the two leaders are under stress. The fact that Bin Laden feels the need to call on al-Zarqawi for support indicates there is less he can do on his own. Add to this the reality that al-Zarqawi hasa been criticized by OBL for his prior tactics, without producing any change in those tactics, and this sounds more like a "plea" than a "command". It's heartening, actually.

One small problem: why didn't U.S. sources keep this information secret? The information in the message is less significant for homeland defense than the fact of the intercept. Did U.S. intelligence just get lucky, and expects to never duplicate the event, or has some fool warned the targets that their communications are being intercepted?

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