31 January, 2006

HAMAS and the democratic peace

Rudy Rummel has a very thoughtful post on his Democratic Peace website regarding the prospects for HAMAS and the predictions of democratic peace theory. One important point is that the Palestinian Authority shouldn't be classified as a democracy until they have completed the next regularly scheduled election and made a successful transfer of power. Read the whole thing. Here's an interesting short-term prediction:

RJR: By theory, as it needs to govern, and will face another election, Hamas should become increasingly moderate and willing to negotiate. 
Already, it is under tremendous pressure to moderate its stand on Israel. Europe and the United States will, they have said, stop all aid to the PA unless Hamas does so, and this aid is essential to the PA's economic survival. But, Iran and Saudi Arabia may produce the needed aid. We'll see.

A clip doesn't do it justice. Take a look at the whole post.

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