New Hampshire GOP Primary
Some other candidate
From the Rasmussen poll for January 4. I still don't expect Paul to win--and have some doubts about what would happen if he did--but it's harder to deny that he is tapping into something.
UPDATE (Jan 11): Well, I blew it on that call. Between falling below Gulliani and the newsletter problem, it may well be that Paul has peaked. Even if true, he's performed a service in getting people to discuss libertarian ideas in public. His worldview may be impractical, but at least it gets people to think. What other candidate has done that?