John Robb says "the global Depression scenario is now dominant," and with it a whole series of "black swans" become more likely. I tend to agree with him. Why? Consider some of his reasons:
An utterly complete cognitive regulatory capture of the US government (the advent of the Obama administration has done nothing to change this). Regulatory capture is when monied interests take control, via cultural and mindset transfer, of the government institutions that are supposed to regulate/control them. In OODA terms, this is a loss of control over the critical orientation phase of decision making loops. As a result, a vast looting of the government's coffers is now in process. The D-process (de-leveraging and deflation) feedback loop is now entrenched. This is a neat term developed by Ray Dalio of Bridewater Associates (Barron's interview). The D-process is what happens (rarely) when too much debt is accumulated. Excess debt must be eliminated before growth can return. In the US case alone, excess debt load is $20-25 Trillion. Since global governments are unwilling and/or unable to wipe out the world's creditors (they've been captured), the process will drag on and on. Stimulus and bailout packages, constructed in a way to protect the wealth of the world's creditors/rentiers (looting), won't work. It will only prolong and deepen the failure as the D-process feedback loop intensifies. A large number of countries from Japan to Spain to Latvia are already in depressions. These failures will serve as a drag on the entire global system, catalyzing the feedback loops of the D-process.
Robb suggests "The revisionist effort to this economic collapse isn't likely to be a surge in ideology or nationalism. Instead, we can expect an organic realignment as small groups of people form new primary loyalties (either to violent manufactured tribes or resilient communities), slot themselves into open source movements, and challenge a wheezing group of incumbent nation-states." Maybe, but I wouldn't count out nationalism just yet. We can have that and the tribalization of conflict.
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